Philip Morris International (PMI) forecasts stable to lower international annual cigarette volumes through 2015 without China, adding progress on reducing illicit trade may create a more favourable scenario.

“Illicit trade can be reduced on a global scale through closer cooperation with national and local authorities,” PMI Chief Executive Officer Louis Camilleri told an investors conference. The protocol on illicit trade adopted this week by the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control is a step in the right direction, he said. This year's volume without China should contract about 0.5 per cent, Camilleri said.
In subsequent years through 2015, Cigarette volume without China should be stable to 1.3 per cent lower on an annual basis. Annual volume in 2015 was forecast between 3.1 trillion to 3.2 trillion sticks. Chinese volume in 2015 should be 2.6 trillion to 2.7 trillion sticks, representing annual growth between 1.5 and 2.5 per cent. International volume including China should be stable to 1.1 per cent higher, creating volume in 2015 between 5.7 trillion and 5.9 trillion sticks, PMI forecast. PMI’s forecasts do not include the US market. Illicit trade is estimated at 600 billion sticks annually. (ci)